Fossil Fuels Should Be Phased Out By 2100, Says IPCC

The unrestricted use of fossil fuels should be phased out by 2100 if the world is to avoid dangerous climate change, a UN-backed expert panel says.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says in a stark report that most of the world's electricity can - and must - be produced from low-carbon sources by 2050. If not, the world faces "severe, pervasive and irreversible" damage.

IPCC is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide the world with clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environment and socio-economic impacts

The UN said inaction would cost "much more" than taking the necessary action.

The IPCC's Synthesis Report was published on November 2, in Copenhagen, after a week of intense debate between scientists and government officials.

It is intended to inform politicians engaged in attempts to deliver a new global treaty on climate by the end of 2015.

The report says that reducing emissions is crucial if global warming is to be limited to 2C - a target acknowledged in 2009 as the threshold of dangerous climate change.

The report suggests renewables will have to grow from their current 30% share to 80% of the power sector by 2050.

In the longer term, the report states that fossil fuel power generation without carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology would need to be "phased out almost entirely by 2100".

The Synthesis Report summarises three previous reports from the IPCC, which outlined the causes, the impacts and the potential solutions to climate change.

It re-states many familiar positions: 

• Warming is "unequivocal" and the human influence on climate is clear
• The period from 1983 to 2012, it says, was likely the warmest 30 year period of the last 1,400 years
• Warming impacts are already being seen around the globe, in the acidification of the oceans, the melting of arctic ice and poorer crop yields in many parts
• Without concerted action on carbon, temperatures will increase over the coming decades and could be almost 5C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said. "There is no ambiguity in their message. Leaders must act. Time is not on our side."

"There is a myth that climate action will cost heavily," said Mr Ban, "but inaction will cost much more."

The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, described the report as "another canary in the coal mine".

"Those who choose to ignore or dispute the science so clearly laid out in this report do so at great risk for all of us and for our kids and grandkids," Mr Kerry said in a statement.

The Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Davey described the report as the "most comprehensive, thorough and robust assessment of climate change ever produced".

"It sends a clear message that should be heard across the world - we must act on climate change now. It's now up to the politicians – we must safeguard the world for future generations by striking a new climate deal in Paris next year," he said.

Prof Myles Allen from Oxford University, a member of the IPCC core writing team, said: "If we can't develop carbon capture we will have to stop using fossil fuels if we want to stop dangerous climate change."

Sources:  BBC News; IPCC website

African Soil Crisis Threatens Food Security

The Montpellier Panel - made up of agricultural, trade and ecology experts from Europe and Africa- warned that land degradation reduces soil fertility, leading to lower crop yields and increased greenhouse gas emissions.

Montpellier Panel works together to enable better European government support of international and regional agriculture development and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Neglecting the health of Africa's soil will lock the continent into a cycle of food insecurity for generations to come, a Montpellier report has warned.

The publication by the Montpellier Panel stated that the problem needed to be given a higher priority by aid donors.

It added that soil degradation was also hampering economic development, costing the continent's farmers billions of dollars in lost income.

The study has been published ahead of the 2015 international year of soils.

"In Africa, the impacts are substantial where 65% of arable land, 30% of grazing land and 20% of forests are already damaged," it observed.

Panel chairman Sir Prof Gordon Conway, from Imperial College London, told BBC News: "We spend a lot of time talking about crops and we spend a lot of time talking about livestock. We have big debates about all kinds of agriculture, yet we tend to ignore that it all depends on soils."

"Serious land degradation accounts for about a quarter of land area of sub-Saharan Africa - it is a vast area," he said.

"There are about 180 million people who are living on land that is in some way or another degraded. It is really very severe." The problem threatened food production in a region that was already experiencing very low crop yields, he explained. "The average yield in sub-Saharan Africa is about one tonne per hectare. In India, it is about two- and-a-half tonnes, while in China it is more than three tonnes per hectare.

"So in Africa, we have the combination of land degradation, poor yields and a growing population."

Sir Gordon described the issue as a "crisis of land degradation and soil management", adding: "We have got to do something about it".

The panel made a number of recommendations, including:
 

·         Strengthening political support for land management

·         Increase financial support for investment in land and soil management

·         Attribute a value to land degradation

·         Create incentives, especially sure land rights

·         Build on existing knowledge and resources

The report said the panel's members believed that soil was the "cornerstone of food security and agricultural development and its care, restoration, enhancement and conservation should intuitively become a major global priority".

Sir Gordon added: "Africa already imports US $40bn worth of food each year, it is an enormous amount. If we do not produce more food in Africa, that will get worse and the continent will suffer as a result.

"Secondly, if we do not pay attention to land degradation in Africa then the land itself will continue to degrade and that will further reduce the yields we are getting at the moment.

"We know what you have to do to improve the quality of soil, but the big challenge is providing the funds and making sure that there are incentives for farmers.

"Farmers will not invest in their land unless they have land tenure. In many cases, they cannot afford to invest in their land so there needs to be public money available.

"In South-East Asia, the great irrigation schemes that have provided much of the food security in the region were publicly funded."

Primary source: Mark Kinver, Environmental reporter, BBC News

Climate Adaptation Costs Soaring, Funding To Fall Short: UN

The cost of adapting to climate change in developing nations is likely to be two to three times higher than previous estimates, even if planet-warming emissions are cut enough to limit global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius, a UN report said on Friday, December 5, 2014.

The study said there was a chance that adaptation costs could climb as high as $150 billion a year by 2025 to 2030, and $250-500 billion per year by 2050, compared with earlier estimates of $70-100 billion yearly by 2050.

"As world leaders meet in Lima to take the critical next step in realising a global agreement on climate change, this report underlines the importance of including comprehensive adaptation plans in the agreement," Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), said in a statement.

At the climate negotiations in Peru that run through December 1 to December 12, 2014, many developed countries want to focus on mitigation - action to reduce emissions. They fear that including a global goal on adaptation in the new deal due to be agreed in Paris in a year's time will lead to demands for firm targets for more adaptation funding. But developing nations insist adaptation should be put on an equal footing.

"Climate change negotiations have been focused so far on mitigation, but it is very important to take into consideration the adaptation factors because everybody - regardless of the level of development - is being hit by climate change," said Ibrahim Thiaw, UNEP's deputy executive director.

 If no new efforts are made to cut greenhouse gas emissions, and temperatures head towards 4 degrees Celsius, adaptation costs could be double the worst-case figures by mid-century, the report warned.

Ambitious and immediate action to reduce emissions "is the best insurance against an insurmountable future adaptation gap", Steiner wrote in a foreword.

ACT NOW TO NARROW GAP

The 49 least-developed countries and small island developing states are likely to have far greater adaptation needs than other parts of the world, the report said. Without early efforts to adjust to more extreme weather and rising seas in these countries, the gap between what is happening and what needs to happen to protect people, assets and ecosystems will widen, it warned.

"Poor people unfortunately are getting shafted as we speak ... and they will have to continue to fend for themselves," said Saleemul Huq, director of the Dhaka-based International Centre for Climate Change and Development. "The world is not coming to their rescue.

"Funding for adaptation from public sources is rising, reaching $23-26 billion in 2012-2013 but there will be a significant gap after 2020 unless new and additional finance is made available, the report said. It also identified shortfalls in the technology and knowledge needed for countries to adapt to climate impacts. Most technologies required in the near term, such as water conservation and more resilient crop varieties, already exist but there are major barriers to people adopting them, the report said.

Knowledge on climate change and adaptation also needs to be used more effectively, and packaged in a way that makes it more accessible to decision makers, UNEP said.

Source: Times of India, Times Internet Ltd

2014 May Turn Out To Be Hottest Year Ever

UN’s specialized agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), released a provisional statement at the ongoing Conference of Parties in Lima, Peru (COP 20). The Status of the Global Climate in 2014 says the year is on track to becoming the hottest, or one of the hottest years on record, largely due to record high global sea surface temperatures, which will very likely remain above normal until the end of the year.

If November and December also follow the same path, then 2014 will likely be the hottest on record, ahead of 2010, 2005 and 1998, says a WMO press release. Global average air temperature over land and sea surface for January to October was about 0.57°C above the average of 14.00°C for the 1961-1990 reference period, and 0.09°C above the average for the past ten years (2004-2013).

High sea temperatures, together with other factors, contributed to exceptionally heavy rainfall and floods in many countries and extreme drought in others.

“The provisional information for 2014 means that 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have all occurred in the 21st century,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “There is no standstill in global warming,” he said.

“What we saw in 2014 is consistent with what we expect from a changing climate. Record-breaking heat combined with torrential rainfall and floods destroyed livelihoods and ruined lives. What is particularly unusual and alarming this year are the high temperatures of vast areas of the ocean surface, including in the northern hemisphere,” he said.

“Record-high greenhouse gas emissions and associated atmospheric concentrations are committing the planet to a much more uncertain and inhospitable future. WMO and its members will continue to improve forecasts and services to help people cope with more frequent and damaging extreme weather and climate conditions,” said Jarraud. This statement was released to inform the annual climate change negotiations taking place in Lima, Peru.

Highlights from WMO statement

Land surface temperatures: Average surface air temperatures over land for January to October 2014 were about 0.86°C above the 1961-1990 average, the fourth or fifth warmest for the same period on record.

Ocean heat: Global sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record, at about 0.45°C above the 1961-1990 average.

Sea level and sea ice: In early 2014, global-average measured sea-level reached a record high for the time of year.

Flooding: Several regions of the world was devastated by floods, including Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Russia, Turkey, France, japan, USA, India and Pakistan.

Drought: Parts of the world like northeast China, central America, central Brazil, western US, Canada were affected by drought.

Tropical cyclones: Until November 13, 72 tropical storms – storms where wind speeds equaled or exceeded 17.5 m/s (63 km/hr)—were recorded, fewer than the 1981-2010 average of 89 storms

Greenhouse gases: GHGs reached new highs in 2013. Data for 2014 have not yet been processed.

Source: Down To Earth